Make Mark Reynolds an All Star – More Analysis

Following up yesterday’s post with more data about the effectiveness of the get out the vote campaign to make Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks an All Star.

First let me say this:


If you haven’t yet (at least 300 times) stop reading this and go vote RIGHT NOW!!!

Ok… now that we’ve taken care of the important business, let’s get to the data.

Here is the updated Tweets Per day including the full day yesterday (July 8th, 2009)


Nice spike in volume on July 8th… it looks like the Twitter campaign for Mark is building some steam. Let’s look deeper into the numbers to see if we can attribute this surge in Tweets to the Vote for Mark Reynolds campaign.


Yep, that is impressive. More than a third of the tweets yesterday mentioned Mark specifically. I think it is safe to say the Vote for Mark Reynolds campaign is driving the increased volume… what else can we see…


Again, a nice chunk of the Tweet volume were “vote” tweets. This is a nice indication of the viral effect. Or to put it in non-Social Media terms, people are clearly talking about the Vote for Mark Reynolds campaign.


This is the graph the Diamondbacks (and more broadly) MLB should be focusing on. Look at the growth in the number of Twitter users (aka people) participating in the conversation… being engaged with the brand. The raw numbers aren’t as important as the trend line… and the trend line is phenomenal.

The million dollar question is, what now. Can the Dbacks and MLB sustain this level of engagement, or will we see a corresponding drop off starting at 4pm today when voting ends? Stay tuned…

One other thing… I personally would LOVE to see this data correlated with the actual votes cast by day/hour. If you’ve got a spare second send @MLB a message on Twitter… point them to this post and tell them you’d love to see that information too!!! I’d be happy to help them put it together.

Did John McCain’s Tweet help Mark Reynolds All Star Game chances?

Yesterday Mark Grace and Daron Sutton (CORRECTION: Todd Walsh set up and conducted the interview) managed to get Senator John McCain to endorse Mark Reynolds bid to be the MLB All Star Game Final Vote winner for the National League.


For reference, Senator McCain sent this tweet out at approximately 4pm Pacific (1600). All times in the analysis below are Pacific.

Today @MLB wondered… did McCain’s tweet have any measurable impact?


Well I happen to be tracking all things Diamondbacks using justSignal – my solution for helping businesses both engage and learn from their fans via Social Media (drop me a note if you are interested in signing up). So let’s take a look at the data and see what we can see…

First some background. justSignal collects every Tweet (and YouTube video, Flickr photo, Blog Post and Backtype Blog Comment) about the Dbacks. We cache all this data for 30 days (when you sign up have the ability to download all the data and store it in your own database). So we have 30 days worth of Social Media data stored for this analysis.

The average Tweets per Day for the last 30 days is 334, but to really determine how yesterday (July 7th, 2009) compares let’s take a look at the daily average number of tweets for the last 30 days:


We can see that yesterday (July 7th, 2009) had a much higher than average number of tweets. As a matter of fact, it is the second highest number of tweets in the last 30 days – only surpassed by June 9th (I really need to go check out that day and see what happened).

We, however, are looking for any specific change in the data as a result of McCain’s tweet… so let’s dig deeper.

Here is the average number of Tweets per Hour of day as measured over the last 30 days:


Pretty clear pattern – the number of tweets ramps up a bit before game time and peaks around the end of the game. The ramp is pretty smooth.

Now lets look at the Tweets per hour for yesterday (July 7th, 2009):


The first thing we notice is a marked jump in Tweet volume the hour after Senator McCain’s Tweet (1700 Pacific). The average 1600/1700 hours are 19.8 and 21.7 respectively. Yesterday however, we saw a jump from 18 to 45 in the same period. We also see that the peak number of tweets per hour (83) is well above average. The question is, are these levels unprecedented – or simply normal variations from the average?

When we review hours 16 and 17 over the 30 day period we see several other examples of large jumps. For example, on June 13th the values for hours 16 and 17 were 19 and 38 respectively. On June 16th the values went from 10 to 38. Given those examples I think it is safe to say the volume change yesterday isn’t extraordinary.

The peak hour Tweets – 83 in hour 21 – is also not extraordinary in the sample. For example, on June 12th in hour 20 there were 73 Tweets. On June 30th in hour 17 there were 85 Tweets.

One last statistic… in the last 30 days there are only 26 tweets that mention Senator McCain and the Diamondbacks. Two on June 8th, one on June 9th, 15 on July 7th and 8 so far today.

Given that Senator McCain has nearly 1 million followers I think it is safe to say his endorsement of Mark Reynolds had essentially no impact.

I’d love to tell you Senator McCain’s endorsement was enough to put Mark in the all star game… but that isn’t going to get it done.

Cmon Dbacks Fans!!!!


06/13/2009 16 19
06/13/2009 17 3806/13/2009 16 19
06/13/2009 17 38

Social Media – Perspective and Predictions

You would assume – since I’m the founder and CEO of a company that is selling a Social Media product, justSignal – that I’m a huge fan of “Social Media”. Perhaps I’m even a Social Media Expert. You’d assume I was going to tell you that Social Media will change everything. You’d assume that I’d tell you that Social Media will force companies to fundamentally change how they do business – they will all have to love their customers, engage them in conversation, make sure their every need is met. You’d assume that I’d be creating products that were directed at companies willing to make the culture change required to excel at Social Media – variously described as a culture of listening or a culture of engagement. You might assume any or all of those things… but you’d be wrong.

Social Media is mired in a massive hype cycle. All of the benefits are massively overstated, the value proposition is stated in only the most vague of terms and everyone is certain they know exactly what the outcome will be – the problem is, they can’t all be right. So, what is someone supposed to think, and why?

So, in an effort to clarify my position for you (and me) – I’m going to walk you through my point of view. You don’t need to like it, and you certainly are not required to agree; but I do hope this gives you some things to think about.

Continue reading “Social Media – Perspective and Predictions”

justSignal Adds More Signal

I’ve been awfully quiet for the last week or so. And there is a reason for that.
I’ve been busily working away to fulfill the vision of justSignal. It was never about (just) Twitter – it was about finding your signal wherever someone chooses to talk about it.

We launched with Twitter and the real-time widget because – frankly – Twitter has the buzz factor and because real-time is compelling. Today we are expanding beyond Twitter and the real-time, with the addition of Backtype (blog comments) and Google Blog Search. These new widgets will be added to the standard justSignal Tracker offering – with no increase in price.

These widgets have all the capabilities of the Twitter Real-Time widget:

  • Auto Updating when new data arrives
  • Fully customizable for your site via CSS
  • Dynamic search/filter terms that can be changed at any time
  • Embeddable in any site/HTML

Google Blog Search Widget: Backtype Blog Search Widget:

But wait there’s more!!! And it isn’t a shamwow.

We’ve also added a search widget. The search widget searches within the Tweets we’ve collected based on your filter. The more (default is 2 hours – with options up to 90 days) history you keep the more useful this search becomes. To demonstrate this search capability we’ve launched Great On Twitter. Great on Twitter collects everything said on Twitter when someone thinks something is great, shows those tweets in real time and allows you to search for things that interest you.

For fun try searching for iPhone (note the number of matching tweets), then search for Blackberry. Another fun example is TweetDeck/Twhirl.

We aren’t done… not even close. So stay tuned for more updates.

My Sorry Sick Self…

So today I’m supposed to appear on Furious World – Peter Himmelman’s weekly live music and technology show.

So of course I wake up this morning and my annoying low grade cold has blossomed into full on body achin’, voice losin’, head throbbin’, racking coughin’, sick as a dog-ness.

I know, you are all disappointed… but be sure to tune in tonight at 7PM Pacific to check out the show… I might just pull it off… But even if I don’t you are still in for a treat.
My Sorry Sick Self… from Brian Roy on Vimeo.

25 Things You May Or May Not Know About Me

I’m not a MEME kinda guy… but I’ll cave on this on because I’ve learned so many interesting things via the lists of others. Here is a link to the MEME room on FriendFeed.

  1. My favorite holiday is Valentines Day – What better holiday than one where you get to go completely overboard lavishing the person you love with attention.
  2. My least favorite holiday is New Years Eve – The worst possible kind of party is a forced party.
  3. My father passed away when I was 12 (he was 44).
  4. I am the youngest of three children. I have two older sisters (one adopted).
  5. When I was about 4 I distinctly remember going through a Minnesota winter in a jacket that didn’t zip. My parents couldn’t afford to buy me a new one.
  6. The father and son who owned the restaurant I managed taught me how to be a man, father, and husband. I owe them I debt I can never repay and for which I am eternally grateful.
  7. My favorite author is Raymond Carver – I expect very few of you (who were not English majors) have ever heard of him.
  8. I’ve read Rise and Fall of the Third Reich 3 times. I believe it should be required reading.
  9. I do not and do not care to understand Lost – I mean seriously… when the complete obfuscation of plot becomes the plot it is just gibberish.
  10. I once had an “affair” with my boss. She is now my wife and the mother of my 2 beautiful daughters – and the love of my life.
  11. I was married on September 4th 2001 in Fiji
  12. I was flying home from Fiji on September 11th, 2001. Our plane was turned around over Hawaii and we spent 6 more days in Fiji. I have a very different experience of that event than most people.
  13. I have a tendency to be blunt. I firmly believe that we can not have a productive conversation about contentious issues unless we are willing to start by putting our cards on the table.
  14. I LOVE to cook. On holiday’s the kitchen is MINE.
  15. If I could have any job I’d be a Myth-buster … I mean SERIOUSLY. I get to act like a dork, blow stuff up AND get paid. Deal.
  16. I have a weird allergy to Rum. One shot (literally) and I will become completely inebriated, sick and pass out.
  17. Don’t get any cute ideas about #16 – I will kick your ass (after about a week of recovery time).
  18. I have silly, silly names for my children. Natalie = Nat Splat; Isabel = Izzy-Beaster
  19. I don’t like cats… not even cute LOLCats.
  20. I love dogs… all dogs (which would explain why the stray – now known as Max – still lives in my house).
  21. The only thing that scares me (I mean really, really scares me) is not being able to keep my girls safe, healthy, clothed, and fed (see #5).
  22. I enjoy American Idol – You have to admit, these people have talent and I enjoy watching them hone their craft.
  23. I get called arrogant fairly often – I’ve stopped apologizing, trying to “correct” my behavior or adjust myself to comply with the needs of others (outside my family and closest friends).
  24. If you leave your ice cream where I can access it you forfeit any right to complain when I eat it. You’ve been warned.
  25. I’m handy. Not like change a light bulb handy. Like re-build an engine, re-wire a house, hang dry-wall, frame a house handy.